It was Bill Clinton who said, "If she wins Texas and Ohio I think she will be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be. It's all on you," the former president told the audience in Texas on February 20, when speaking about his wife’s campaign.
Fast forward to February 26 and Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton duked it out in their last debate before the crucial Texas and Ohio primaries. Tuesday’s debate began with a punch. Clinton attacked Obama on mailers his campaign distributed; claiming her healthcare plan did not cover everyone. “I have a great deal of respect for senator Obama, but we have differences, and in the last several days some of those differences in tactics and the choices that senator Obama's campaign has made regarding flyers and mailers, other information that has been put out about my healthcare plan, and my position about NAFTA uh have been very disturbing to me. And therefore, I think it's important to stand up for yourself and you point out these differences so that voters have the information they need to make a decision,” she said. Clinton supports universal healthcare. Obama parried her accusation and after spending 16 minutes on healthcare, the debate wound down to long policy speeches on trade and foreign policy. In the end, the debate was a tie with no one side coming out on top.
Therein lays the problem for Hillary Clinton’s campaign. How does she stop Obama’s momentum before the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4? The Illinois Senator has won the last 10 primaries and caucuses.
Recent polls show Clinton’s support slipping in both Texas and Ohio. Most polls have Obama with a slight lead in Texas and gaining ground in Ohio. In January, Clinton had a comfortable double digit lead over her rival in both states. Throw into the mix the perception that the New York Senator’s campaign is faltering. Recently, Clinton replaced her chief strategist and lent her own campaign five million dollars. Thursday (02/29), the former first lady’s campaign reported that she raised $35-million dollar for the month of February.
Clinton needed to win Tuesday’s debate convincingly, before Texas and Ohio. She needed to out maneuver Obama; to catch him off guard if you will, and she failed to do that. At this late stage in the nomination race, it is hard to see how she can stop Obama winning the Democratic nomination.
In the past, the Clinton campaign switched tactics weekly with every primary loss. Her ‘Experience’ message, the cornerstone of Clinton’s campaign, failed to catch on with voters. Then her message switched to ‘change’ and finally, she settled on highlighting the differences in policy issues - all for naught.
Clinton’s fall has not been all her own making. Barack Obama the ‘change’ candidate appears to have the right message, at the right time for America. Americans are clamoring for change and that is reflected in the huge turnout of new voters in the primaries.
Texas has a total of 193 democratic delegates up for grabs. Ohio has 141 delegates. The democratic nominee needs to secure 2025 delegates to win nomination. Presently, Obama has 1365 and Clinton has 1265 (incl. Super Delegates).
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Don't Write Off Hillary Clinton Just Yet
If Senator Hillary Clinton reads the newspapers or watches television, she cannot help but see the obituaries written about her winning the democratic nomination for president - particularly after losing the last eight primaries and caucuses to Senator Barack Obama. But on Thursday (02/14) workers at a GM Assembly Plant in Ohio, saw a rejuvenated Clinton, who had taken the gloves off as she railed against her opponent’s message of change. In her speech, she accused her opponent of stealing her ideas on creating ‘green’ jobs. She attacked his message of change by calling it ‘talk’ and no action. Despite her hoarse voice, Clinton gave an impassioned speech on restoring American manufacturing jobs and taking on everything from trade with China to the credit card companies.
Armed with the knowledge that the economy is first and foremost on voters minds, the New York Senator promised new manufacturing jobs and help for the struggling middle class, if only she can get past the first hurdle – winning the democratic nomination.
Armed with the knowledge that the economy is first and foremost on voters minds, the New York Senator promised new manufacturing jobs and help for the struggling middle class, if only she can get past the first hurdle – winning the democratic nomination.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Momentum
Barack Obama won in Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington states on Saturday (02/09). He won the state of Maine on Sunday (02/10). He will face off with Hillary Clinton in Virginia, the District of Columbia, and Maryland, on Tuesday (02/12).
To date, Obama has 943 delegates, compared to Clinton’s 895. (A total number of 2,025 delegates are needed for nomination)
After Sunday’s (02/10) win in Maine, Clinton made a change at the top of her campaign management team. Campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle stepped down from running the day-to-day operations and was replaced by Maggie Williams. Both of these women have worked with the Clinton’s for many years.
Momentum – that is the word most commonly used to describe Barack Obama’s weekend sweep. When Obama wins state after state, he receives both more media attention and positive media attention. He comes off as a winner; the most important person in American society is a winner. The newspaper interviews and the television news segments all come with winning. This attention re-enforces his image as a winner in the public’s mind. The media coverage leaves the impression of inevitability - he will win the democratic presidential nomination.
On the other hand, Clinton was the loser coming out of this weekend’s election. Her media attention was mostly negative and was hurt considerably by her organizational change, portrayed as a sign of desperation in the media. Clinton’s changing act, coupled with last week’s five million dollar loan to herself, were acts of desperation in the media.
The combination of Obama’s positive attention and Clinton’s negative attention in the media leads to a downward spiral for the Clinton’s campaign. It will be interesting to see if she can counter Obama’s momentum. One big win in Ohio or Texas could turn that momentum around.
To date, Obama has 943 delegates, compared to Clinton’s 895. (A total number of 2,025 delegates are needed for nomination)
After Sunday’s (02/10) win in Maine, Clinton made a change at the top of her campaign management team. Campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle stepped down from running the day-to-day operations and was replaced by Maggie Williams. Both of these women have worked with the Clinton’s for many years.
Momentum – that is the word most commonly used to describe Barack Obama’s weekend sweep. When Obama wins state after state, he receives both more media attention and positive media attention. He comes off as a winner; the most important person in American society is a winner. The newspaper interviews and the television news segments all come with winning. This attention re-enforces his image as a winner in the public’s mind. The media coverage leaves the impression of inevitability - he will win the democratic presidential nomination.
On the other hand, Clinton was the loser coming out of this weekend’s election. Her media attention was mostly negative and was hurt considerably by her organizational change, portrayed as a sign of desperation in the media. Clinton’s changing act, coupled with last week’s five million dollar loan to herself, were acts of desperation in the media.
The combination of Obama’s positive attention and Clinton’s negative attention in the media leads to a downward spiral for the Clinton’s campaign. It will be interesting to see if she can counter Obama’s momentum. One big win in Ohio or Texas could turn that momentum around.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Super Tuesday, Super Bowl
U.S. presidential politics is a full contact sport. It’s a ‘beat ‘em up, drag ‘em down’ contest until there is only one candidate left standing come November. That is what makes Super Tuesday (02/04) such an exciting event for political junkies like me.
Barack Obama is running neck and neck in the polls with his democratic rival Hillary Clinton going into Tuesday’s primaries. This fact alone seemed as improbable as the New York Giants winning the Super Bowl on Sunday (02/03), just a couple of months ago.
Sunday (02/03) saw New York Giants beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, the American equivalent of the World Cup (without the ‘world’ taking part). The Giants win was considered an improbable event until just before game time Sunday. The Giants were 12 points underdogs going into the game according Las Vegas bookies. The New York team started out the season by losing their first two games. The heartless New York media called for ‘heads to roll’, including the teams coach, Tom Coughlin. Sunday saw the Giants go to Arizona and beat what was championed as the greatest team assembled in American Football History, the New England Patriots. They had won 18 games coming into the Super Bowl and lost none. They even beat the New York Giants earlier in the season, but narrowly.
Here comes Super Tuesday (02/04) and voters in 24 states will go to the polls in what is touted an unprecedented race for the White House. Republicans and Democrats are expected to vote in huge numbers in influential states like California and New York. The two most populous states with their large delegate count will play the biggest role in choosing the next president of the United States in November.
The only certainty in this election year is that American’s want change. It has yet to be seen whether they want to throw the republicans out of the White House and replace them with democrats, or whether they want to see a new republican face at the presidential helm.
A couple of months ago, the Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama was so far behind his rival, Hillary Clinton in the national polls as to be considered an also ran. A couple wins in the early state primaries later and some key endorsements from Ted Kennedy, the Kennedy patriarch, and celebrities like Oprah Winfrey and he is now running neck and neck going into Super Tuesday, according to the latest polls. (A CBS poll has them both at 41 percent).
On the republican side, John McCain, Tuesday’s republican front-runner, is clearly going into Super Tuesday with what looks like an insurmountable lead over his two rivals, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. A CBS poll has McCain getting 46 percent of the votes compared to Romney’s 23 percent and Huckabee’s 12 percent.
Like Sunday’s improbable Giants Super Bowl win, McCain was considered a ‘goner’ when his campaign hit a road block a couple of months ago. He was in financial difficulty early in the election process. He ended up firing his top political advisors and took to the road on his ‘Straight Talk Express’ campaign bus, instead of the preferred private planes used by the other candidates.
McCain’s resurgence can be linked to the progress made by American troops in quelling the violence in Iraq. McCain is closely linked in the voter’s minds to his support for the unpopular military surge proposed by George Bush. Now that Iraq had faded from media headlines and the surge is perceived by the electorate to be a success, McCain has benefited from his earlier controversial decision to support the surge. Also, it doesn’t hurt that the American economy has taken precedence in voter’s minds, leaving Iraq a distant memory.
The only sure thing about this Tuesday is the New York Giants ticker tater-tape parade down Manhattan’s canyon of heroes. So let the games begin.
Barack Obama is running neck and neck in the polls with his democratic rival Hillary Clinton going into Tuesday’s primaries. This fact alone seemed as improbable as the New York Giants winning the Super Bowl on Sunday (02/03), just a couple of months ago.
Sunday (02/03) saw New York Giants beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, the American equivalent of the World Cup (without the ‘world’ taking part). The Giants win was considered an improbable event until just before game time Sunday. The Giants were 12 points underdogs going into the game according Las Vegas bookies. The New York team started out the season by losing their first two games. The heartless New York media called for ‘heads to roll’, including the teams coach, Tom Coughlin. Sunday saw the Giants go to Arizona and beat what was championed as the greatest team assembled in American Football History, the New England Patriots. They had won 18 games coming into the Super Bowl and lost none. They even beat the New York Giants earlier in the season, but narrowly.
Here comes Super Tuesday (02/04) and voters in 24 states will go to the polls in what is touted an unprecedented race for the White House. Republicans and Democrats are expected to vote in huge numbers in influential states like California and New York. The two most populous states with their large delegate count will play the biggest role in choosing the next president of the United States in November.
The only certainty in this election year is that American’s want change. It has yet to be seen whether they want to throw the republicans out of the White House and replace them with democrats, or whether they want to see a new republican face at the presidential helm.
A couple of months ago, the Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama was so far behind his rival, Hillary Clinton in the national polls as to be considered an also ran. A couple wins in the early state primaries later and some key endorsements from Ted Kennedy, the Kennedy patriarch, and celebrities like Oprah Winfrey and he is now running neck and neck going into Super Tuesday, according to the latest polls. (A CBS poll has them both at 41 percent).
On the republican side, John McCain, Tuesday’s republican front-runner, is clearly going into Super Tuesday with what looks like an insurmountable lead over his two rivals, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. A CBS poll has McCain getting 46 percent of the votes compared to Romney’s 23 percent and Huckabee’s 12 percent.
Like Sunday’s improbable Giants Super Bowl win, McCain was considered a ‘goner’ when his campaign hit a road block a couple of months ago. He was in financial difficulty early in the election process. He ended up firing his top political advisors and took to the road on his ‘Straight Talk Express’ campaign bus, instead of the preferred private planes used by the other candidates.
McCain’s resurgence can be linked to the progress made by American troops in quelling the violence in Iraq. McCain is closely linked in the voter’s minds to his support for the unpopular military surge proposed by George Bush. Now that Iraq had faded from media headlines and the surge is perceived by the electorate to be a success, McCain has benefited from his earlier controversial decision to support the surge. Also, it doesn’t hurt that the American economy has taken precedence in voter’s minds, leaving Iraq a distant memory.
The only sure thing about this Tuesday is the New York Giants ticker tater-tape parade down Manhattan’s canyon of heroes. So let the games begin.
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