A Faltering Campaign

It was Bill Clinton who said, "If she wins Texas and Ohio I think she will be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be. It's all on you," the former president told the audience in Texas on February 20, when speaking about his wife’s campaign.

Fast forward to February 26 and Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton duked it out in their last debate before the crucial Texas and Ohio primaries. Tuesday’s debate began with a punch. Clinton attacked Obama on mailers his campaign distributed; claiming her healthcare plan did not cover everyone. “I have a great deal of respect for senator Obama, but we have differences, and in the last several days some of those differences in tactics and the choices that senator Obama's campaign has made regarding flyers and mailers, other information that has been put out about my healthcare plan, and my position about NAFTA uh have been very disturbing to me. And therefore, I think it's important to stand up for yourself and you point out these differences so that voters have the information they need to make a decision,” she said. Clinton supports universal healthcare. Obama parried her accusation and after spending 16 minutes on healthcare, the debate wound down to long policy speeches on trade and foreign policy. In the end, the debate was a tie with no one side coming out on top.

Therein lays the problem for Hillary Clinton’s campaign. How does she stop Obama’s momentum before the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4? The Illinois Senator has won the last 10 primaries and caucuses.

Recent polls show Clinton’s support slipping in both Texas and Ohio. Most polls have Obama with a slight lead in Texas and gaining ground in Ohio. In January, Clinton had a comfortable double digit lead over her rival in both states. Throw into the mix the perception that the New York Senator’s campaign is faltering. Recently, Clinton replaced her chief strategist and lent her own campaign five million dollars. Thursday (02/29), the former first lady’s campaign reported that she raised $35-million dollar for the month of February.

Clinton needed to win Tuesday’s debate convincingly, before Texas and Ohio. She needed to out maneuver Obama; to catch him off guard if you will, and she failed to do that. At this late stage in the nomination race, it is hard to see how she can stop Obama winning the Democratic nomination.

In the past, the Clinton campaign switched tactics weekly with every primary loss. Her ‘Experience’ message, the cornerstone of Clinton’s campaign, failed to catch on with voters. Then her message switched to ‘change’ and finally, she settled on highlighting the differences in policy issues - all for naught.

Clinton’s fall has not been all her own making. Barack Obama the ‘change’ candidate appears to have the right message, at the right time for America. Americans are clamoring for change and that is reflected in the huge turnout of new voters in the primaries.

Texas has a total of 193 democratic delegates up for grabs. Ohio has 141 delegates. The democratic nominee needs to secure 2025 delegates to win nomination. Presently, Obama has 1365 and Clinton has 1265 (incl. Super Delegates).